Series 22 Preview: Cubs vs. Reds

Choo

Shin-Soo Choo has helped guide the Reds offense this season. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

The Reds are still trailing the Cardinals by four games in the NL Central, but Dusty Baker’s club has shown remarkable resilience after a spate of early-season injuries. Though Cincinnati lost both cleanup hitter Ryan Ludwick and rotation ace Johnny Cueto for the season’s opening months, they have been able to ride three strengths to a 37-26 record: their deep pitching staff, an above-average defense that has converted 71 percent of balls in play into outs, and the two best players in baseball at getting on base. And the roster is deep enough that Baker doesn’t have to do anything crazy. Once the lineup starts firing on all pistons, watch out.

HITTING: 4.6 RS/G (3rd in NL)
The Reds lost Ludwick from the heart of the order and endured slow starts from most of their regulars, so why are they still scoring runs by the truckload? Quite simply because they have the best on-base combo in baseball atop their order in Shin-Soo Choo and former NL MVP Joey Votto. With both getting on base more than 40 percent of the time, they’re creating a tremendous number of scoring opportunities. That’s part of the reason Brandon Phillips is among the league leaders in RBI (46) filling in for Ludwick in the middle of the lineup. Phillips is plating 19 percent of his men on base—a good mark—but he is also batting with the highest total of runners on base. Once Todd Frazier and Zack Cozart start slugging the way they can, the Reds’ offense could be the league’s best.

PITCHING: 3.8 RA/G (4th in NL)
Cueto’s continued absence has been a big blow, but the Reds have had the depth to deal with it so far, thanks in part to power lefty Tony Cingrani, who is expected to get the start Tuesday against Matt Garza. If Wednesday’s starter, Mike Leake, doesn’t add deception to his repertoire, he might be at risk of losing his job to Cingrani this season. In the meantime, Monday’s starter Homer Bailey’s development into a topline starter has rewarded the organization’s faith in the former first-rounder, while Bronson Arroyo continues to be the staff workhorse, never impressing the radar gun but spinning innumerable variations off his offspeed junk. The ’pen is similarly deep. Lefty Aroldis Chapman may get the most save opportunities, but on nights when his triple-digit heat is a little wild, Baker hasn’t been afraid to turn to rookie righty J.J. Hoover. Veteran set-up men Sean Marshall (currently on the DL again) and Jonathan Broxton also offer closing experience.

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